In the middle of a series of four losses, the bears return to Mitch Trubisky at the quarterback. Will it make any difference to the leading packers?
Either way, the value doesn’t seem to be on either side of that Sunday Night Football stretch.
Trubisky has slightly better overall efficiency numbers than Foles, but amassed them against a much simpler schedule that included the Lions, Giants, and Falcons. Foles, meanwhile, was better at avoiding negative games, throwing fewer incompleteness and interceptions, and using fewer sacks.
Trubisky’s mobility might help some as the Packers surrendered 38 yards on seven stretches to Deshaun Watson – the only mobile quarterback they’ve faced – but overall, the quarterback move is largely a wash.
With almost freezing temperatures and double-digit winds, this game could be decided on site. The Packers’ defense has been shaky all season, ranking 20th in the Football Outsiders DVOA. space. The Bears Run game didn’t exist, but it’s encouraging that the similarly fighting Colts managed to hit 113 yards in 32 tries against the Packers last week (which could have been a lot more if it wasn’t for a weird litany of penalties).
The bears will come back and David Montgomery will run back, whose 3rd. 6 yards per carry mark is pathetic, but still better than the 2. 5 yards per carry Cordarrelle Patterson started last week instead of Montgomery.
Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s first game, who took on the game call duties for Matt Nagy, was not promising: the bears only ran 34% of the time and hit a total of 149 yards of attack. Perhaps Lazor will rely more on the escape with Montgomery, but there doesn’t seem to be a quick fix for this offense regardless of who is the quarterback running back or the playcaller.
It doesn’t help that the left tackle against Charles Leno is a game-time decision after injuring his toe in practice on Wednesday.
The Bears are the third top 5 defense in DVOA that the Packers have played since they left in Week 5.
In the other two games, the Packers’ offensive went for long distances in the AWOL: In week 5 against the Buccaneers, the Packers went goalless over the final of 45:48 after taking a 10-0 lead and ultimately 38:10 lost. And last week against the Colts, the Packers only managed three points in the final 33:06, which was a 14-point lead over 34-31 in overtime.
Since Khalil Mack joined the Bears in 2018, the Packers have accumulated points of 24, 17, 10 and 21, with Rodgers averaging 241 points. 5 meters past with 1. 25 touchdowns in these meetings. Due to the decline in talent retention after Davante Adams, Rodgers typically battles defenses that are able to stay under cover long enough without sending additional rushers, and the Bears rank sixth in yards per allowable pass attempt ( 6). 8) when flashing at the sixth lowest rate (21st. 4% per Pro Football reference).
Packer’s running backs have also struggled against the bears in the last four meetings:
The Packers’ offensive would get a boost if the Bears were without a defensive tackle against Akiem Hicks (thigh), who is second on the team in overall pressure (35 per Pro Football Focus) and also one of the team’s top run defenders is. Even so, this is one of the toughest matchups the Packers have faced all season.
Although the packers are only 18 on average. 0 points per game against the bears since they acquired Mack. Green Bay has won three of those four games thanks to Chicago’s inability to only play the Bears 15 on average. 8 points per game in these four competitions.
Trubisky vs.. . Foles is a wash, so Trubisky-Start doesn’t create value for a spread that has risen to -8. If I were forced to choose either side I would still reject Packers as Rodgers is 35-21-1 against the spread on our direct Lab data after a direct loss.
Given that the bears go well together on defense and the weather forecast turns out to be one not conducive to a big day, I like the value of the grand total more.
According to our Bet Labs data, Trubisky’s starts as an underdog is below 9-4. These teams have teamed up for an average of 33. 75 points per game in the last four games, which drops to 23 points. 5 in the two matchups with Matt LaFleur vs.. . Matt Nagy.
The familiarity between Nagy and LaFleur, now facing each other for the third time, should only increase the likelihood that it will be a low-scoring game, as division games played in November or later went down at 56. 5% clip since 2003:
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Chicago Bears, Mitch Trubisky, NFL, Green Bay Packers
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