The Greens are on track to register more than 40% of the primary vote in South Brisbane and at the Maiwar headquarters, based in Indooroopilly, said Max Chandler-Mather, party strategist in Queensland
The party is expected to win 39-43% in South Brisbane and up to 42% in Maiwar, based on campaign data on the ground
The highest ever state-level primary vote for the party in Australia came last year when Jamie Parker scored 427% in Balmain’s Sydney seat and Jenny Leong won 46% in the city neighbor of Newtown
M Chandler-Mather said the methodology of their field campaign data was « eerily accurate » in predicting outcomes in the Gabba neighborhood during the 2016 Council election, where Jonathan Sri became the first councilor of the left
« We also got Maiwar’s vote exactly the last time and South Brisbane’s vote as well, » he said.
Michael Berkman’s victory in Maiwar shocked many election observers, none of whom predicted the Greens could take the LNP seat
M Chandler-Mather said he rechecked his calculations early this afternoon with stand workers and the campaign’s field data forecast appeared to be coming true
If this is correct, M Berkman would win Maiwar with a two-party preferred vote of 54-57%, he said, comfortably beating Lauren Day of the LNP despite only a slight drop in the LNP primary vote
« The Labor Party vote is going to crumble badly and we are going to scratch it, » said M Chandler-Mather
Ms Day, a former senior Channel 10 reporter who ran a well-organized, well-funded and vigorous campaign, said she thinks LNP is doing well
M Chandler-Mather said if the party’s data was correct, the Greens ‘Amy MacMahon would get a whopping 60 percent of both parties’ preferred vote, easily beating Labor Party Jackie Trad
This involved dividing the door knocking responses into seven categories: people who said they would definitely vote Greens, people who said they probably would, voters split 50:50, people who were « opposed » to the party and those who indicated they would definitely not vote for the Greens
The methodology also took into account people who said they were not interested in politics or would not say what they intended to do.
M Chandler-Mather said they had 100% of people who indicated they would undoubtedly vote the Greens as stranded voters
But they only counted 50% of those who said they would « probably » vote the Greens as stranded supporters
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Queensland Greens, Australian Greens, Michael Berkman, 2020 Queensland State Elections, Maiwar Constituency
World News – AU – Biggest Vote Greens never registered: election forecasts
