World news – The Citadel versus Western Carolina Odds and Picks

By

Jordan Horrobin
in the

College basketball
Jan 31, 2021 5:55 p.m. PST

Are you a sucker for an underdog story? Hopefully, because that’s what you fancy when The Citadel takes on Western Carolina on Monday, February 1st at 12 p.m. ET. Both teams are from the middle of December and were only preferred once. They spent most of their games on the underside of the money line and the scoring.

Of course, someone has to be the favorite in this one, and that happens to be Western Carolina. Here’s a look at the odds:

Neither team has spent much time in the winning column lately, with The Citadel only winning once in the last six games and Western Carolina losing seven times in a row.

Here’s what you should know about these teams: You need to watch the game action closely as the players move quickly. The Citadel has the ninth shortest average ball possession length in NCAA Division I (14.9 seconds) and the second fastest adjusted pace per KenPom. Western Carolina isn’t nearly as fast with its possessions (16.5 seconds, 103rd in TUE), but it has a fairly quickly adjusted pace that takes 62nd place.

Between them, the Bulldogs and Catamounts have zero KenPom Top 100 wins and six wins against non-DI opponents. That’s what you call a cupcake schedule.

The Citadel ranks 352nd among 357 D-I teams in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, but counters with the 24th effective field target percentage (55.3 percent). They score an astonishingly high 87.9 points per game, led by Hayden Brown (21 points, 10.2 rebounds per game).

Western Carolina is not that high offensively or so low defensively. The Catamounts’ strength is likely their insult within the arc (52.6 percent 2-point shooting, 74th in TUE), but they still try too many threes (42 percent of their field goal attempts, 63rd in TUE). Notably, The Citadel won 77-69 against Wofford on Wednesday and Western Carolina lost 91-78 to Wofford last weekend.

The Citadel is 6-4 against the overall spread, but they’re 1 -4 ATS on the go (and 1-4 ATS in their last five games). The Bulldogs were underdogs with 11 points in their last game but were beaten by East Tennessee State 112-84.

Western Carolina is 4-10 ATS, including 1-2 ATS at home. They covered in their last game as a 9-point underdog and had an ATS losing streak of four games.

Both teams play very fast, but the over / under of 169.5 is pretty steep. The Citadel has seen the defeat in three of the last four, while Western Carolina has seen the defeat in five of the last six.

Last year Western Carolina won both matchups with The Citadel outright, but The Citadel covered both spreads as an underdog . However, they covered those spreads with a total of 3.5 points, so it was tight.

The Citadel had three newbies last year and returned a total of four starters. Western Carolina, on the other hand, created two seniors and three returnees last year.

We’re going to get the points with The Citadel, whose ability to cover in last year’s matchups – and beat mutual opponent Wofford – them all into one enticing game.

Jordan Horrobin is a sports writer whose MLB, NHL, NFL, and NCAA work has appeared in branches such as The Athletic, MLB.com, the Detroit Free Press, and others. He currently lives in Toronto and also works for Forbes.com and as a freelance editor for Sportsnet.

Jordan Horrobin is a sports writer whose MLB, NHL, NFL, and NCAA work has appeared in branches like The Athletic, MLB.com, the Detroit Free Press, and others. He currently lives in Toronto and also works for Forbes.com and as a freelance editor for Sportsnet.

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