Just weeks after surviving a horror car crash, speculation is buzzing again that Anthony Albanese might be sacked as Labor leader before the next election.
His most likely replacement? The woman who ruled out a run for the top job after the last election: Tanya Plibersek.
Mr. Albanese was still recovering from his car accident that he was fortunate enough to survive after a P-plater in a Range Rover « wrote off » his car. For the past few days, he’s been on the radio in a media flash, discussing his near-death experience.
But leadership speculation has continued to swirl. The latest chatter followed comments from a woman most voters have never heard of – CFMEU national political organizer Elizabeth Doidge.
She said Mrs Plibersek would have a better chance of leading Labor to a victory.
« We definitely want a change in leadership. I’m not necessarily saying it has to be Plibersek, but it definitely has to be someone other than Anthony Albanese, » she told The Australian.
Mr. Albanese quickly dismissed the story as « repayment » for his battle with CFMEU leader John Setka.
« Well, I think people will see through this. I think it says more about them than it does about me, » he told 3AW on Monday morning.
« I took a stance on John Setka and discredited the Labor Party. In all honesty, I’ve never heard of the officer, and I’ve never heard of the company that did the alleged poll. I just had to do a little giggle. » To be honest, I don’t take it all that seriously. »
But there is no doubt that if Mr. Albanese’s performance does not improve, that better-known numbers could show up to weigh on his leadership.
Almost two years ago, Ms. Plibersek was considering a run for the top job, but only 24 hours later mysteriously dropped out, pointing to family commitments.
« I will serve in whatever capacity my colleagues believe best can help Labor return to government. »
Some people misunderstood what happened in those days after the 2019 elections to assume that Ms. Plibersek ruled out ever running for leadership. But that would be a mistake.
The iron law of Australian politics is, if you have the numbers, use them.
Many in the party believe that Ms. Plibersek realized that winning would be a tough one, as much of the left faction supports Mr Albanese.
But even after she decided to pull the pen this Monday after the election, she waited for former Prime Minister Julia Gillard to endorse her candidacy, perhaps a sign that her declaration that it was « not her time » wasn’t meant that she had given up realizing the ambition to lead the Labor Party later.
In fact, her career is full of moments when she stepped down, sometimes for family reasons, only to show up in bigger and better jobs later.
During the Gillard years when her children were younger, she announced that she would not raise her hand for a cabinet job.
However, she later reappeared in higher positions and was ultimately elected Vice-Chair along with Bill Shorten after the 2013 elections.
Her decision not to stand paved the way for Mr Albanese to rise to the top unchecked, and she was also forced to step down as deputy chairman of little-known Victorian MP Richard Marles of the far-right parliamentary group.
Another potential candidate, Labor frontbencher Jim Chalmers, also ruled out taking over the shadow treasury portfolio at this point. If Ms. Plibersek has taken the lead, he will be the man most likely to become her deputy.
Since the election she has held onto the educational portfolio, but has also made some eyebrow-raising forays into other areas, including calling for an oath of allegiance to Australia that will have appealed to some Labor Conservatives.
Indeed, there is a way for Mrs Plibersek to secure the lead and it is a question of becoming a de facto candidate for the right group.
This is the best practice Julia Gillard used when she rolled Kevin Rudd as an executive in 2010 with the help of NSW Right.
While Ms. Plibersek is a longtime member of Mr. Albanese’s Left Party and holds a neighboring seat in Sydney, the couple have never been personally close.
To date, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has focused his attacks on Treasury Department spokesman Jim Chalmers as the man most likely to succeed as the next leader.
However, recent machinations within the Labor Party suggest that the leader he might face in the next election is the woman who stares him in the face during Question Time.
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