Perhaps the most exciting fight in the UFC preliminaries this weekend is co-artists Phil « Megatron » Hawes and Kyle Daukaus. Daukaus will be Hawes’ toughest challenge yet.
Hawes’ most likely win condition is an early end – five of Hawes’ last six fights have been first-round wins. Is Hawes Prepared For Another Early End? Or does Kyle Daukaus have what it takes to drag Hawes into deep water and claim victory?
Kyle Daukaus is a versatile fighter who stands at 6-foot-3 and gives him a slight advantage over his opponent. In three UFC fights, we’ve seen him move forward continuously, setting a hard-to-beat pace.
Here we could see Hawes fighting. Hawes displays quick-twitch, explosive movements that can be difficult to deal with. Unfortunately, Hawes’ last fight raised all sorts of questions about his ability to fight after the first round.
When I see Nassourdine Imavov pushing forward while Hawes is struggling to move in Round 3, I ask him about his Petrol tank. Hawes turned to wrestling immediately after Round 1 – a tactic that is unlikely to succeed in this fight against Daukaus.
Stylistically, this is a tough matchup for Hawes who has to sell out early for a knockout or has the risk of ending up in a world full of problems later in the fight.
We saw that Hawes didn’t make the early knockout and then looks lost in the octagon. Additionally, Daukaus profiles itself as a competitive advantage that tends to get stronger as the fight progresses.
Daukaus has a 94% defense rate per UFC stat which gives me little confidence that Hawes will be able to consistently Landing shutdowns when he needs a break. Even if he does, Daukaus has a solid submission offense – eight of his 10 wins have been made by submission.
If you want to bet Hawes on taking out Daukaus – which none of his opponents have done so far – he’s in Round 1 425 to do this. That requires a lot of luck, and I prefer to bet on the value side of fights, which in this case are at Daukaus.
Daukaus is almost the same amount of money at -130 at PointsBet. I’m not a fan of their submission prop odds, which are at 260. FanDuel has a clear disagreement about having this prop hang at 420 – over an 8% difference in the implied odds of winning.
I believe Hawes could get extremely tired as this fight goes into the second half. If he gets tired of the constant attack pressure from Daukaus, we could see Hawes shoot after a takedown. Daukaus is known for its Darce / Brabo choke which could be used here. If you’re looking for a big chance of winning, Daukaus is on FanDuel by submitting Round 3 2100.
I think Daukaus’ most likely win condition is decision as he’s an excellent volume forwarder. However, I can sell the third round for a minimal cost at PointsBet. Given that Hawes was about to finish in the finals against Imavov, I’m inclined to do so with an alternate round here.
Daukaus is 235 to win in round 3 or by decision. I think that’s excellent value – I’d bet it up to 210 – especially if you want to get a shot on Daukau’s third round 2100.
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